Bracketology 2016-17

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Wed Feb 08, 2017 5:06 pm

7 games left. Let's say thy lose at Wisky and Indiana (tough road asks). They have Maryland and Purdue at home, let's say they split (say Maryland), picking up one siganture win. They'll beat Rutgers at home. That leaves @Illinois and Michigan as swing games...let's say 1-1 is par in those 2 games (we'll assume a loss to Illinois).

Here's what that profile would look like.

Northwestern (21-10) (10-8) RPI 43 SoS 80
Vital signs: 6-7 R/N, non-con SoS 184, 3-7 vs. Top 50, 10-10 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Dayton, Indiana, Maryland, Wake
Bad losses: swept by Illinois, the theoretical loss at Indiana would be second worst

Probably in, but their signature road win would be either Ohio St or Penn St. It'd be nice if they could get one better, but the chances left are Wisky or Indiana. A bubble team will more often than not be able to show one win in this category. They would also only have 3 wins over tournament teams (figure the chances of Wake making it and the chances of Indiana missing even out). Again, this is low for a bubble team, but they can make it.

10-10 vs. Top 100 is on the low end of acceptable too, but 20 such games is a boon. 3-7 vs. Top 50....again, that's low for a bubble team, but do-able. That non-con SoS is somewhat concerning...if that was 234 instead of 184, it might be a real issue, but they played just enough high-end competition to survive.

It's such a weird situation. There is no one metric that screams that they should be in. No strength in this profile. However, there's no weakness either. They don't have a disaster SoS, they have juuuuust enough quality wins, they have juuuuuust enough bad loss avoidance. The sum of this profile is greater than its parts.
That's enough, Reggie Miller.

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by illini25 » Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:00 pm

Plus if they're close don't you think the committee puts them in for the sake of putting them in?

I think they are safe right now but if last night started a 2-6 finish to end of season followed by a BTT one and done, it drastically changes.
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by illini25 » Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:03 pm

TAS, where are you getting non-con SOS?

This has it much worse for NW.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... /teamId/77
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:38 pm

illini25 wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:03 pm
TAS, where are you getting non-con SOS?

This has it much worse for NW.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... /teamId/77
I use either CBS or Warren Nolan. ESPN always seems to be off in one direction or another.
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:44 pm

This is crazy, but Vanderbilt (12-12) isn't dead.

#1 non-con SoS. They're 7-12 vs. the top 100, which isn't great, but they're not dead.

Signature wins over @Florida, @Arky, and Iowa St.
No losses outside the top 100 (now, there's a couple too many home losses to the likes of Ole Miss and Georgia...a Bucknell loss is in there too).

But they still have South Carolina and Florida at home, and Kentucky on the road. Win 2 of those 3, and their other 4 games are layups, relatively speaking. Even if they lose one of those, they'll be 17-14 (10-8) with a shiny RPI, the #1 SoS, and 4 or 5 wins over tourney teams.
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by Bluejaygrad03 » Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:14 pm

This tweet from Jon Rothstein pretty well sums up San Diego State's season:
Things I never thought I'd tweet: San Diego State has lost to Grand Canyon, San Jose State, and Loyola (Illinois) all in the same season.

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by squirrel » Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:37 pm

"They say Rome wasn't built in a day, but I wasn't on that particular job." -Brian Clough

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by Bluejaygrad03 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:11 pm

And EIU is one of them.

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:33 pm

The 1 line: Villanova (23-2), Kansas (21-3), Baylor (20-3), Gonzaga (25-0)
The 2 line: North Carolina (20-5), Florida St (21-4), Louisville (19-5), Arizona (22-3)
The 3 line: West Virginia (19-5), Oregon (20-4), UCLA (22-3), Virginia (18-5)
The 4 line: Kentucky (19-5), Duke (19-5), Wisconsin (21-3), Cincinnati (22-2)
The 5 line: Florida (19-5), Butler (19-5), Purdue (20-5), Creighton (19-4)
The 6 line: St Mary's (22-2), Xavier (18-6), Notre Dame (18-7), Maryland (19-4)
The 7 line: SMU (21-4), South Carolina (18-5), USC (21-4), Dayton (17-5)
The 8 line: Northwestern (18-6), Miami (16-7), Minnesota (17-7), Virginia Tech (16-7)
The 9 line: VCU (19-5), Iowa St (14-9), California (18-6), TCU (16-7)
The 10 line: Syracuse (16-9), Oklahoma St (14-9), Middle Tennessee (20-4), Kansas St (16-8)
The 11 line: Arkansas (17-7), Michigan St (14-10), Wichita St (21-4), Indiana (15-10), Georgia Tech (13-10), Marquette (15-9)
The 12 line: Illinois St (19-5), UNC-Wilmington (20-4), Nevada (19-5), Akron (19-4)
The 13 line: Valparaiso (19-5), New Mexico St (19-3), Monmouth (20-5), Georgia Southern (14-8)
The 14 line: Belmont (18-4), Vermont (21-5), Princeton (12-6), Furman (15-8)
The 15 line: UNC-Asheville (17-7), North Dakota St (14-8), Bucknell (19-7), FGCU (16-7)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (13-10), North Carolina Central (14-6), Weber St (12-8), New Orleans (11-9), Mount St Mary's (13-13), UC-Davis (13-9)

Next 4 in:
Oklahoma St
Kansas St
Arkansas
Michigan St

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Indiana
Georgia Tech
Marquette

Last 4 out:
Seton Hall (15-8)
Wake Forest (14-10)
Tennessee (13-10)
Clemson (13-10)

Next 4 out:
Rhode Island (16-7)
Michigan (15-9)
Alabama (14-9)
Houston (17-7)
That's enough, Reggie Miller.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by Leatherneck » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:54 am

So is this March Madness preview show on CBS (which is almost concluding as I type this) officially announcing who will be the top 4 seeds in each region (that's what I thought I heard)? Or since they showed a whole bracket is it one of those "if the season ended today" bracketology projections? (especially with projected winners of mid-major conferences shown). Of course, a lot can change in a month.

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by Leatherneck » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:55 am

Leatherneck wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:54 am
So is this March Madness preview show on CBS (which is almost concluding as I type this) officially announcing who will be the top 4 seeds in each region (that's what I thought I heard)? Or since they showed a whole bracket is it one of those "if the season ended today" bracketology projections? (especially with projected winners of mid-major conferences shown). Of course, a lot can change in a month.
Speaking of the CBS show, their early bracket prediction projected an ISU-Creighton first rounder (CU #5, ISU #12).

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by Bluejaygrad03 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:16 pm

And here's the top 4 seeds in each region that were released today by the Selection committee:

Image

TAS, I'd be curious to get your take on these seeds.

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:43 pm

First, the procedure stuff. That actually interests me more here.

1) North Carolina's first preferred regional is the South, not the East. Thought it'd be close, but I've been assuming the NCAA would send UNC to the East instead of the South.

It seems like among all the ACC teams in contention for a high seed, only Virginia would be sent to the East regional as their first choice - everyone else would be pegged for the South

2) The committee did adjust the position of teams to balance regionals. And you're not gonna believe this, but it massively benefitted Duke. Look at West Virginia, #14 overall. When it's their turn to be placed in the bracket....the East regional is wide open for them to be put in. Then UCLA can go to the midwest, and Duke gets stuck in the west. But notice what happens if you do that. The West already has the worst 1 seed and the worst 2 seed. Therefore, the NCAA gave that regional WVU instead of Duke to balance the regionals.

However, the cost is now that WVU has to fly across the country, and UCLA has to fly across the country as well (instead of just going to KC). Meanwhile, Duke gets to go to KC instead of San Jose.

Study this Duke/West Virginia thing closely folks. To the casual fan, this looks like massive bias for the benefit of Duke. However, procedure dictates this move.
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by Bluejaygrad03 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:13 pm

TAS, something I'm curious about based on how the bracket was laid out on there. If we're going by strictly 1-16 rankings based on those that are showing on there, why wouldn't it have gone like this?:

East
1. Villanova
2. Oregon
3. Arizona
4. Duke

Midwest
1. Kansas
2. Louisville
3. Virginia
4. UCLA

South
1. Baylor
2. Florida State
3. Florida
4. West Virginia

West
1. Gonzaga
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Butler

Now I know there's the obvious issues with Oregon/Arizona, Louisville/Virginia, and Baylor/West Virginia being in the same sweet 16 rather than elite 8 and I know the selection committee has the rule about teams from the same conference meeting prior to elite 8 but other than maneuvering a team or two around here or there, I'm curious as to why it went the way it did. And I get the whole deal in terms of teams preferring the region they play in and all that.

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by illini25 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:53 pm

Bravesfanpete wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2017 11:15 am
TheAsianSensation wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2017 11:10 am
Illinois back in the at-large picture! :joker

Man, what a terrible loss. Why is Illinois ruining everything for the conference
I don't think it's a bad loss TAS. Illinois is #53 in the latest Warren Nolan RPI ranking, which is exactly why you said that Illinois is back in the at-large picture. A missed chance for a somewhat "easier" home win, but still not a bad loss. NW has to make it up somewhere else now. I still think 10-8 in the Big 10 gets them into the NCAA Tournament at a seeding above the final four in.
I'm laughing about this as Illinois is about to be swept by Penn State. Northwestern better hope they can win in Champaign or it's two bad losses against the 13th or 14th place team.
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:39 pm

Bluejaygrad03 wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:13 pm
TAS, something I'm curious about based on how the bracket was laid out on there. If we're going by strictly 1-16 rankings based on those that are showing on there, why wouldn't it have gone like this?:

East
1. Villanova
2. Oregon
3. Arizona
4. Duke

Midwest
1. Kansas
2. Louisville
3. Virginia
4. UCLA

South
1. Baylor
2. Florida State
3. Florida
4. West Virginia

West
1. Gonzaga
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Butler

Now I know there's the obvious issues with Oregon/Arizona, Louisville/Virginia, and Baylor/West Virginia being in the same sweet 16 rather than elite 8 and I know the selection committee has the rule about teams from the same conference meeting prior to elite 8 but other than maneuvering a team or two around here or there, I'm curious as to why it went the way it did. And I get the whole deal in terms of teams preferring the region they play in and all that.
They don't do straight 1-16. What they do is take the first team on a seed line (for example, Arizona as the highest 3 seed), and then find their best geographical fit, without regard for the other teams in the region. Therefore, #9 Arizona gets placed with #2 Kansas instead of #1 Villanova, solely based on geography.

And then there's another layer of movement by trying to make sure each region is balanced. What ends up happening is like tennis - you'll never get the seeds lined up mathematically perfect; you'll just make sure they're not too terrible imbalanced.
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:37 pm

This really hurts Illinois' positioning on the NIT bubble. If you're not careful you'll miss the NIT :joker
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by illini25 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:39 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:37 pm
This really hurts Illinois' positioning on the NIT bubble. If you're not careful you'll miss the NIT :joker
We can hope they miss the NIT!
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by illini25 » Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:32 pm

Bluejaygrad03 wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:16 pm
And here's the top 4 seeds in each region that were released today by the Selection committee:

Image

TAS, I'd be curious to get your take on these seeds.
Go Badgers!

Wisconsin going to show they are top 16 material. Butler lost yesterday to Providence. That's like losing to Illinois!
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by Bravesfanpete » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:04 pm

illini25 wrote:
Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:32 pm
Bluejaygrad03 wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:16 pm
And here's the top 4 seeds in each region that were released today by the Selection committee:

Image

TAS, I'd be curious to get your take on these seeds.
Go Badgers!

Wisconsin going to show they are top 16 material. Butler lost yesterday to Providence. That's like losing to Illinois!
Nope! Lol.

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by Bravesfanpete » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:05 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:
Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:33 pm
The 1 line: Villanova (23-2), Kansas (21-3), Baylor (20-3), Gonzaga (25-0)
The 2 line: North Carolina (20-5), Florida St (21-4), Louisville (19-5), Arizona (22-3)
The 3 line: West Virginia (19-5), Oregon (20-4), UCLA (22-3), Virginia (18-5)
The 4 line: Kentucky (19-5), Duke (19-5), Wisconsin (21-3), Cincinnati (22-2)
The 5 line: Florida (19-5), Butler (19-5), Purdue (20-5), Creighton (19-4)
The 6 line: St Mary's (22-2), Xavier (18-6), Notre Dame (18-7), Maryland (19-4)
The 7 line: SMU (21-4), South Carolina (18-5), USC (21-4), Dayton (17-5)
The 8 line: Northwestern (18-6), Miami (16-7), Minnesota (17-7), Virginia Tech (16-7)
The 9 line: VCU (19-5), Iowa St (14-9), California (18-6), TCU (16-7)
The 10 line: Syracuse (16-9), Oklahoma St (14-9), Middle Tennessee (20-4), Kansas St (16-8)
The 11 line: Arkansas (17-7), Michigan St (14-10), Wichita St (21-4), Indiana (15-10), Georgia Tech (13-10), Marquette (15-9)
The 12 line: Illinois St (19-5), UNC-Wilmington (20-4), Nevada (19-5), Akron (19-4)
The 13 line: Valparaiso (19-5), New Mexico St (19-3), Monmouth (20-5), Georgia Southern (14-8)
The 14 line: Belmont (18-4), Vermont (21-5), Princeton (12-6), Furman (15-8)
The 15 line: UNC-Asheville (17-7), North Dakota St (14-8), Bucknell (19-7), FGCU (16-7)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (13-10), North Carolina Central (14-6), Weber St (12-8), New Orleans (11-9), Mount St Mary's (13-13), UC-Davis (13-9)

Next 4 in:
Oklahoma St
Kansas St
Arkansas
Michigan St

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Indiana
Georgia Tech
Marquette

Last 4 out:
Seton Hall (15-8)
Wake Forest (14-10)
Tennessee (13-10)
Clemson (13-10)

Next 4 out:
Rhode Island (16-7)
Michigan (15-9)
Alabama (14-9)
Houston (17-7)
TAS, you may want to move Northwestern up a seed or two. :D

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:41 pm

The 1 line: Villanova (24-2), Kansas (22-3), Baylor (21-3), Gonzaga (26-0)
The 2 line: North Carolina (20-5), Louisville (20-5), Florida St (21-5), Oregon (21-4)
The 3 line: Arizona (23-3), Florida (20-5), Kentucky (20-5), Virginia (18-6)
The 4 line: West Virginia (20-5), UCLA (23-3), Duke (20-5), Butler (19-6)
The 5 line: Purdue (20-5), Notre Dame (19-7), Creighton (20-4), Wisconsin (21-4)
The 6 line: Cincinnati (22-3), Maryland (20-4), Xavier (18-7), SMU (22-4)
The 7 line: Northwestern (19-6), St Mary's (22-3), South Carolina (19-5), USC (21-5)
The 8 line: Dayton (18-5), Miami (16-8), Virginia Tech (17-7), Minnesota (18-7)
The 9 line: VCU (20-5), Iowa St (15-9), California (18-7), TCU (16-8)
The 10 line: Oklahoma St (15-9), Middle Tennessee (21-4), Kansas St (16-9), Syracuse (16-10)
The 11 line: Michigan (16-9), Michigan St (15-10), Arkansas (18-7), Wichita St (22-4), Georgia Tech (14-10), Wake Forest (15-10)
The 12 line: Illinois St (20-5), Akron (20-4), Boise St (15-7), UNC-Wilmington (20-5)
The 13 line: Monmouth (21-5), Valparaiso (20-5), Princeton (14-6), Vermont (22-5)
The 14 line: Furman (16-8), Georgia Southern (14-9), UNC-Asheville (18-7), Belmont (18-5)
The 15 line: North Dakota St (15-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (14-7), Bucknell (19-7), FGCU (17-7)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (14-10), North Carolina Central (15-6), New Orleans (12-9), Weber St (13-8), Mount St Mary's (14-13), UC-Davis (14-9)

Next 4 in:
Kansas St
Syracuse
Michigan
Michigan St

Last 4 in:
Arkansas
Wichita St
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest

Last 4 out:
Indiana (15-11)
Seton Hall (15-9)
Marquette (15-10)
Clemson (13-11)

Next 4 out:
Houston (18-7)
Tennessee (13-11)
Rhode Island (16-8)
Ohio St (15-11)
That's enough, Reggie Miller.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:00 am

This isn't to pile on yuo-know-who, but I've never seen a tire fire season from an entire conference like the tire fire we've seen from the Big West this year. From 15th to 16th to 29th in conference RPI. Everyone couldn't make it to .500 out of conference. No top 150 RPI teams. 5 teams sub-300. The entire conference has 6 Top 200 wins out of conference.

Your two favorites entering the year, Irvine and LBSU, played the #22 and #18 schedules, and got killed, going a combined 8-20 and murdering the SoS of everyone in conference. The other regular power UCSB has managed to be terrible in all games.

Meanwhile, everyone else did poorly against terrible schedules. Fullerton 5th easiest in the country. Everyone else sub-150. And no one posted a winning record against those marginal schedules. Poly's been awful for years, Fullerton's going nowhere, Davis is turning their prime years into a terrible year that is lucking out because everyone else is terrible. Hawaii keeps getting quality games because of its locale and keeps screwing everything up.

Like, if you were to individually grade each team's season, you'd give out 7 Fs (the non-contenders who are all underperforming), a D- for Irvine just because they can still win the conference, and maybe a C- for Davis.


Also of note at the bottom - the SWAC is going to beat the MEAC! They've made the margin hold up all year long.
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by squirrel » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:44 pm

No love for the Mecca of Cafegymatorium Basketball that is the Big West.
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Re: Bracketology 2016-17

Post by TheAsianSensation » Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:25 pm

The 1 line: Villanova (25-2), Kansas (23-3), Gonzaga (27-0), Baylor (21-4)
The 2 line: North Carolina (21-5), Louisville (21-5), Florida St (21-5), Oregon (22-4)
The 3 line: Arizona (24-3), Florida (21-5), Kentucky (21-5), Duke (21-5)
The 4 line: UCLA (23-3), West Virginia (20-6), Butler (20-6), Purdue (21-5)
The 5 line: Virginia (18-7), Notre Dame (20-7), Cincinnati (23-3), Creighton (20-5)
The 6 line: Maryland (21-4), Wisconsin (21-5), SMU (23-4), St Mary's (23-3)
The 7 line: Xavier (18-8), Northwestern (19-7), USC (21-5), South Carolina (19-6)
The 8 line: Virginia Tech (18-7), Dayton (19-5), Minnesota (19-7), Miami (17-8)
The 9 line: Iowa St (16-9), VCU (21-5), California (18-7), Oklahoma St (16-9)
The 10 line: Middle Tennessee (22-4), Michigan (16-9), Michigan St (16-10), Arkansas (19-7)
The 11 line: Syracuse (16-11), TCU (16-9), Wichita St (23-4), Seton Hall (16-9), Kansas St (16-10), Clemson (14-11)
The 12 line: Illinois St (21-5), UNC-Wilmington (21-5), Colorado St (16-9), Texas-Arlington (17-6)
The 13 line: Akron (21-4), Monmouth (23-5), Valparaiso (20-5), Vermont (23-5)
The 14 line: Princeton (14-6), Belmont (19-5), Furman (18-8), UNC-Asheville (19-7)
The 15 line: Cal St-Bakersfield (15-7), North Dakota St (15-9), Bucknell (20-8), FGCU (18-7)
The 16 line: Texas Southern (14-11), North Carolina Central (16-6), New Orleans (12-9), Weber St (14-8), Mount St Mary's (14-14), UC-Davis (14-10)

Next 4 in:
Michigan St
Arkansas
Syracuse
TCU

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Seton Hall
Kansas St
Clemson

Last 4 out:
Georgia Tech (14-11)
Wake Forest (15-11)
Marquette (15-10)
Indiana (15-12)

Next 4 out:
Nevada (20-6)
Providence (16-11)
Houston (18-7)
Tennessee (13-12)
That's enough, Reggie Miller.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

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