Big Dance

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RobertsonFieldHouse7
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Re: Big Dance

Post by RobertsonFieldHouse7 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:43 pm

Ahh, apologies that I mis-interpreted TAS's message.

My point wasn't to call him out, that's why I injected that perhaps the rules or site weren't up to date.

But makes sense that I mis-read his intent.

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Re: Big Dance

Post by TheAsianSensation » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:46 pm

To clarify NET:

Your own NET doesn't matter. Your own ranking doesn't matter.

The rankings of your opponents DO matter. They help judge how quality your wins and losses are.

So Penn St's NET matters when it comes to seeding, but our own doesn't.

It's backwards logic...but it's the NCAA's logic :joker
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That's enough, Chris Webber.

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Re: Big Dance

Post by TheAsianSensation » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:48 pm

One sliver of good news; the door is slightly ajar on this possibility

@Tulsa
3) Kansas vs. 14) Bradley
That's enough, Reggie Miller.

That's enough, Chris Webber.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

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Re: Big Dance

Post by TheAsianSensation » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:00 pm

There's one metric on the team sheet that never gets discussed, for whatever reason. But it's there, and its impact is real.

Average win, and average loss. The average NET of all opponents you beat (and lost to).

Our average NET win is 186.


Gardner-Webb 259
Sam Houston St 281
Colgate 230
Montana 246
Georgia St 186
Northern Kentucky 226
Liberty 245
UC Irvine 220
Northeastern 190
New Mexico St 206
Norfolk St 319
North Dakota St 259
Prairie View A&M 319
Fairleigh Dickinson 279
Iona 268
Murray St 244


By one metric, this zooms us up to the 13 line.
That's enough, Reggie Miller.

That's enough, Chris Webber.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

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Re: Big Dance

Post by squirrel » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:06 pm

That's a good point, and schools can put information forth for the committee's consideration as well. All but one MVC school had at least 15 wins. So while the league did not establish itself nationally, there is enough quality there that puts some meaning into being the team to emerge. Whether or not that gets considered, time will tell.
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Re: Big Dance

Post by TheAsianSensation » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:06 am

Today's projection:

@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Bradley


If the Des Moines thing is a real thing; then we have:

@Jacksonville
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Bradley


If we jump to the 14 line:
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) Bradley


Fluid situation.
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That's enough, Chris Webber.

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Re: Big Dance

Post by Braves4Life » Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:41 am

Lunardi has updated this morning and placed us as a #15 in Columbus against... DUKE! :shock: :peep
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Re: Big Dance

Post by BradleyBrave » Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:55 am

Braves4Life wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:41 am
Lunardi has updated this morning and placed us as a #15 in Columbus against... DUKE! :shock: :peep
Zion gonna be #KochBlocked in Columbus...
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Re: Big Dance

Post by AllStateMidstate » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:30 am

I don’t see Duke as a 2 seed,,,
I like the Tulsa,and playing Houston :bounce :bounce

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Re: Big Dance

Post by Majik45 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:08 am

TheAsianSensation wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:00 pm
Our average NET win is 186.
I heard Wardle talking about this on one of those million radio interviews he's done this week. Basically the MVC was full of a bunch of "good" teams, but had no "great" team this year. Almost all the MVC teams were between 100 and 200 in the net rankings.

Just did a quick gander and everyone but Evansville (208) is between 123 and 200.

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Re: Big Dance

Post by squirrel » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:21 am

Majik45 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:08 am
TheAsianSensation wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:00 pm
Our average NET win is 186.
I heard Wardle talking about this on one of those million radio interviews he's done this week. Basically the MVC was full of a bunch of "good" teams, but had no "great" team this year. Almost all the MVC teams were between 100 and 200 in the net rankings.

Just did a quick gander and everyone but Evansville (208) is between 123 and 200.
Yep. The fact that all but 1 team had at least 15 wins, but most had 17 or more, meant no game was easy.
"[. . .] and it would be foolish to gobble up sliders when there’s a steak hidden in the fridge." -Kirk Wessler

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Re: Big Dance

Post by RobertsonFieldHouse7 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:19 am

by TheAsianSensation » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:00 pm
There's one metric on the team sheet that never gets discussed, for whatever reason. But it's there, and its impact is real.

Average win, and average loss. The average NET of all opponents you beat (and lost to).

Our average NET win is 186.


Gardner-Webb 259
Sam Houston St 281
Colgate 230
Montana 246
Georgia St 186
Northern Kentucky 226
Liberty 245
UC Irvine 220
Northeastern 190
New Mexico St 206
Norfolk St 319
North Dakota St 259
Prairie View A&M 319
Fairleigh Dickinson 279
Iona 268
Murray St 244


By one metric, this zooms us up to the 13 line.
That's some good, hard work there, digging that out of the team sheets. And a reason for hope, at least so far as not landing a 16 or perhaps even 15.

Kudos, TAS.

Ummm, hate to ask, but ... any chance you also compiled, compared, and contrasted our average NET loss?

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Re: Big Dance

Post by Braveman » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:32 am

AllStateMidstate wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:30 am
I don’t see Duke as a 2 seed,,,
I like the Tulsa,and playing Houston :bounce :bounce
Of the many possibilities I have seen most often, I would prefer Michigan State or Tennessee over Houston. Houston clobbered Cincinnati last weekend and looks tough to me....

Any way you look at it, we all we got and we all we need....
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Re: Big Dance

Post by Mike Radigan » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:34 am

Lunardi updated today, BU vs Duke.

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Re: Big Dance

Post by PH » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:39 am

Interesting discussion with the chair


On the good side, They look at quality road/away games as a prediction measure for tournament success
But they also like NET

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Re: Big Dance

Post by tribecalledquest » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:43 am

squirrel wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:21 am
Majik45 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:08 am
TheAsianSensation wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:00 pm
Our average NET win is 186.
I heard Wardle talking about this on one of those million radio interviews he's done this week. Basically the MVC was full of a bunch of "good" teams, but had no "great" team this year. Almost all the MVC teams were between 100 and 200 in the net rankings.

Just did a quick gander and everyone but Evansville (208) is between 123 and 200.
Yep. The fact that all but 1 team had at least 15 wins, but most had 17 or more, meant no game was easy.
Can we not try to make something up? The Valley didn't have a bunch of good teams this year. Let's not lower the standards of the league now. It was a bunch of average teams and some below average. It is what it is. No game was easy because all the teams were equally average - not because it was a bunch of good teams. Let's hope its a one year blip on the radar.

The truth is this was the worst collection of teams the MVC has seen in over 20 years. Let's not make this the new normal please.
"When the speech condemns a free press, you are hearing the words of a tyrant."
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Re: Big Dance

Post by Dallas Brave » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:25 am

I took a look at the box scores of Loyola's path to the final four. Winning the first 3 games by a total of 4 points was amazing.
https://loyolaramblers.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=147

The Ramblers shot well from the arc. I hope the Braves are practicing their outside shooting. I'm not worried about our D, but if we shoot like we did in the MVC tournament we will be one and done.

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Re: Big Dance

Post by tribecalledquest » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:48 am

Dallas Brave wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:25 am
I took a look at the box scores of Loyola's path to the final four. Winning the first 3 games by a total of 4 points was amazing.
https://loyolaramblers.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=147

The Ramblers shot well from the arc. I hope the Braves are practicing their outside shooting. I'm not worried about our D, but if we shoot like we did in the MVC tournament we will be one and done.
Bradley won three games this weekend by a total of eight points and the opponents had game winning or tying shot opportunities in the air in the final 10 seconds - all of them missed. Playing well is important and having some luck is important too.
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Re: Big Dance

Post by JD » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:55 am

Dallas Brave wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:25 am
I took a look at the box scores of Loyola's path to the final four. Winning the first 3 games by a total of 4 points was amazing.
https://loyolaramblers.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=147

The Ramblers shot well from the arc. I hope the Braves are practicing their outside shooting. I'm not worried about our D, but if we shoot like we did in the MVC tournament we will be one and done.
Playing a 2 Seed, BU could also shoot lights out and lose.
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Re: Big Dance

Post by SFP » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:00 pm

When we play one of the top teams we will need to hope they do not have an inside presence and that their shots are not falling to have a chance. It is that simple.
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Re: Big Dance

Post by RobertsonFieldHouse7 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:08 pm

by TheAsianSensation » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:46 pm
To clarify NET:

Your own NET doesn't matter. Your own ranking doesn't matter.

The rankings of your opponents DO matter. They help judge how quality your wins and losses are.

So Penn St's NET matters when it comes to seeding, but our own doesn't.

It's backwards logic...but it's the NCAA's logic :joker
To your point ...

Some luck from Penn St's loss ... which actually bumped them up 2 NET spots, to 47 from 49, keeping them safely a Q1 for BU.

SMU's win in the AAC tourney last night also bumped them up in NET, 5 spots to 98, and into Q2 win territory for BU.

SMU faces AAC 2 seed and 26 NET Cincy tonight in tourney quarters, so win or lose would expect SMU to bump up and stay on the good side of 100 NET, leaving them a Q2 win for BU.

BU stayed still at 176.

So, the resume now:
1-0 v Q1
1-3 v Q2
all the rest

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Re: Big Dance

Post by TheAsianSensation » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:50 pm

RobertsonFieldHouse7 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:19 am
by TheAsianSensation » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:00 pm
There's one metric on the team sheet that never gets discussed, for whatever reason. But it's there, and its impact is real.

Average win, and average loss. The average NET of all opponents you beat (and lost to).

Our average NET win is 186.


Gardner-Webb 259
Sam Houston St 281
Colgate 230
Montana 246
Georgia St 186
Northern Kentucky 226
Liberty 245
UC Irvine 220
Northeastern 190
New Mexico St 206
Norfolk St 319
North Dakota St 259
Prairie View A&M 319
Fairleigh Dickinson 279
Iona 268
Murray St 244


By one metric, this zooms us up to the 13 line.
That's some good, hard work there, digging that out of the team sheets. And a reason for hope, at least so far as not landing a 16 or perhaps even 15.

Kudos, TAS.

Ummm, hate to ask, but ... any chance you also compiled, compared, and contrasted our average NET loss?
Our net loss is 173. Won't type everyone else's out, but we're middle-of-the-pack there.
That's enough, Reggie Miller.

That's enough, Chris Webber.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

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Re: Big Dance

Post by squirrel » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:01 pm

tribecalledquest wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:43 am
squirrel wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:21 am
Majik45 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:08 am


I heard Wardle talking about this on one of those million radio interviews he's done this week. Basically the MVC was full of a bunch of "good" teams, but had no "great" team this year. Almost all the MVC teams were between 100 and 200 in the net rankings.

Just did a quick gander and everyone but Evansville (208) is between 123 and 200.
Yep. The fact that all but 1 team had at least 15 wins, but most had 17 or more, meant no game was easy.
Can we not try to make something up? The Valley didn't have a bunch of good teams this year. Let's not lower the standards of the league now. It was a bunch of average teams and some below average. It is what it is. No game was easy because all the teams were equally average - not because it was a bunch of good teams. Let's hope its a one year blip on the radar.

The truth is this was the worst collection of teams the MVC has seen in over 20 years. Let's not make this the new normal please.
No one is making it a new normal for crying out loud. How many other leagues can say all but one team had at least 15 wins? Yes, we all recognize it was a down year for the Valley, but it was also one of significant transition, IMO. . .not a new normal. We're just talking about information Bradley can submit as part of their resume. And yes, the committee is likely to ignore it, but at least put forth the information. You OK, man?
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Re: Big Dance

Post by tribecalledquest » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:12 pm

squirrel wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:01 pm
tribecalledquest wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:43 am
squirrel wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:21 am


Yep. The fact that all but 1 team had at least 15 wins, but most had 17 or more, meant no game was easy.
Can we not try to make something up? The Valley didn't have a bunch of good teams this year. Let's not lower the standards of the league now. It was a bunch of average teams and some below average. It is what it is. No game was easy because all the teams were equally average - not because it was a bunch of good teams. Let's hope its a one year blip on the radar.

The truth is this was the worst collection of teams the MVC has seen in over 20 years. Let's not make this the new normal please.
No one is making it a new normal for crying out loud. How many other leagues can say all but one team had at least 15 wins? Yes, we all recognize it was a down year for the Valley, but it was also one of significant transition, IMO. . .not a new normal. We're just talking about information Bradley can submit as part of their resume. And yes, the committee is likely to ignore it, but at least put forth the information. You OK, man?
You can certainly say all the MVC teams had “X” number of wins. That doesn’t mean it had good teams or it was a good league.

I don’t think it was a year of significant transition. It was a league that had really high hopes and underperformed miserably. That’s just the truth.

My issue is saying it was a good league with good teams. It wasn’t.
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Re: Big Dance

Post by RobertsonFieldHouse7 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:32 pm

Our net loss is 173. Won't type everyone else's out, but we're middle-of-the-pack there.
Got it, sounds like that's safely 15-line metric ... avg net win 13-14 ... maybe hope to climb to a 14 afterall ... but I remain wary and worried for a 15, based on how Committee has treated analagous info in past years re: Valley teams and resumes.

I *think* safely out of 16 line, but just barely.

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