Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

BradleyHoops.com: For the civil discussion of Bradley University men's basketball
Post Reply
User avatar
squirrel
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 30358
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2003 8:45 pm
Location: Peoria, IL

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by squirrel » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:44 am

AllStateMidstate wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:36 am
We lost Donte,and Nobody took his place,,,childs is still here,and so is sticks ll
,but that is the gap.hustle,rebounding,defense help,leadership.on an on...
I would ask, how it world did this staff not see this...????
I don't assume they didn't. But I do think they attempted to make Childs Donte 2.0 and it has been a failed experiment.
"[. . .] and it would be foolish to gobble up sliders when there’s a steak hidden in the fridge." -Kirk Wessler

User avatar
tribecalledquest
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 20685
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:00 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by tribecalledquest » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:54 am

squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:44 am
AllStateMidstate wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:36 am
We lost Donte,and Nobody took his place,,,childs is still here,and so is sticks ll
,but that is the gap.hustle,rebounding,defense help,leadership.on an on...
I would ask, how it world did this staff not see this...????
I don't assume they didn't. But I do think they attempted to make Childs Donte 2.0 and it has been a failed experiment.
I actually don't see that at all. Donte spent very little time outside last year. Childs is rarely shooting near the rim. Most of Donte's shots were inside the paint. Childs has taken 7 FT's in league games so far. Donte spent a ton of time at the line.
"When the speech condemns a free press, you are hearing the words of a tyrant."
~Thomas Jefferson

real fan
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 6314
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 1:23 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by real fan » Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:10 pm

tribecalledquest wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:54 am
squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:44 am
AllStateMidstate wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:36 am
We lost Donte,and Nobody took his place,,,childs is still here,and so is sticks ll
,but that is the gap.hustle,rebounding,defense help,leadership.on an on...
I would ask, how it world did this staff not see this...????
I don't assume they didn't. But I do think they attempted to make Childs Donte 2.0 and it has been a failed experiment.
I actually don't see that at all. Donte spent very little time outside last year. Childs is rarely shooting near the rim. Most of Donte's shots were inside the paint. Childs has taken 7 FT's in league games so far. Donte spent a ton of time at the line.
Donte was a lot more athletic and had a good motor, Eli looks slow and lethargic and not aggressive enough for a player his size.

User avatar
SaintLouBrave22
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 18577
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2003 8:37 am
Location: St. Louis, MO

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by SaintLouBrave22 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:35 pm

real fan wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:10 pm
tribecalledquest wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:54 am
squirrel wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:44 am


I don't assume they didn't. But I do think they attempted to make Childs Donte 2.0 and it has been a failed experiment.
I actually don't see that at all. Donte spent very little time outside last year. Childs is rarely shooting near the rim. Most of Donte's shots were inside the paint. Childs has taken 7 FT's in league games so far. Donte spent a ton of time at the line.
Donte was a lot more athletic and had a good motor, Eli looks slow and lethargic and not aggressive enough for a player his size.
Donte also got acustomed to being a banger the last couple years....Eli either doesn't want to do it or they don't want him to...Either way, it suggests he doesn't prefer contact.
---If you need it, you don't have it. If you have it you don't need it. But if you need and you don't have it, you want it. If you don't have any of it, then you really don't know how to get more to get started then do you?---

User avatar
BradleyBrave
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 15102
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2003 2:51 pm
Location: Emergency Room
Contact:

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by BradleyBrave » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:45 pm

I find it pretty ironic that all offseason whenever asked about Loyola, the positive impact of the Final Four run, etc Wardle would immediately trash Porter Moser, say he only had one good season his whole career, say how he used to beat him all the time in the Horizon League, say how he wasn’t worried about Loyola, blah blah blah.

Loyola will probably win the Valley again.

We will probably finish last.

Karma is a b*tch.
“Bradley is a dream job for me. Why Bradley? It’s very simple. I knew all about Bradley growing up. I played at Carver Arena a couple of times. We didn’t win those games, but I plan on winning a lot there in the future.” - Brian Wardle, March 27, 2015

ER3
Grand Master
Grand Master
Posts: 2035
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 1:24 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by ER3 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:22 pm

BradleyBrave wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:45 pm
I find it pretty ironic that all offseason whenever asked about Loyola, the positive impact of the Final Four run, etc Wardle would immediately trash Porter Moser, say he only had one good season his whole career, say how he used to beat him all the time in the Horizon League, say how he wasn’t worried about Loyola, blah blah blah.

Loyola will probably win the Valley again.

We will probably finish last.

Karma is a b*tch.
So, Wardle is just as awful in the evaluation of other programs/coaches as he is in his evaluation of recruits. At least he's consistent.

User avatar
BradleyBrave
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 15102
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2003 2:51 pm
Location: Emergency Room
Contact:

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by BradleyBrave » Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:36 pm

The odds of this are slim and none, but we could win every game up until home against Loyola on February 13.

ISU
@ MSU
@ Evansville
SIU
@ UNI
Indiana St

Loyola is the only good team in our league. I’m already chalking that one up to a sweep. Every other team we can beat, and we will have the chance to save our season over the next 6 games. 8 is the magic number...for both guaranteeing .500 and likely staying out of Thursday...

Oh get me to Feb 2 at home going for .500 against Barry...
“Bradley is a dream job for me. Why Bradley? It’s very simple. I knew all about Bradley growing up. I played at Carver Arena a couple of times. We didn’t win those games, but I plan on winning a lot there in the future.” - Brian Wardle, March 27, 2015

User avatar
BradleyBrave
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 15102
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2003 2:51 pm
Location: Emergency Room
Contact:

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by BradleyBrave » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:30 pm

BradleyBrave wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:36 pm
The odds of this are slim and none, but we could win every game up until home against Loyola on February 13.

ISU
@ MSU
@ Evansville
SIU
@ UNI
Indiana St

Loyola is the only good team in our league. I’m already chalking that one up to a sweep. Every other team we can beat, and we will have the chance to save our season over the next 6 games. 8 is the magic number...for both guaranteeing .500 and likely staying out of Thursday...

Oh get me to Feb 2 at home going for .500 against Barry...
1 down.

We have 11 games left. Is 6-5 that unrealistic? 7-4 even?
“Bradley is a dream job for me. Why Bradley? It’s very simple. I knew all about Bradley growing up. I played at Carver Arena a couple of times. We didn’t win those games, but I plan on winning a lot there in the future.” - Brian Wardle, March 27, 2015

User avatar
squirrel
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 30358
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2003 8:45 pm
Location: Peoria, IL

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by squirrel » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:35 pm

Missouri State is scary to me once again...but they are flawed just like everyone else. Hopefully we've flipped that switch that allows us to compete. The next 4 don't have to be that scary:

@ MSU
@ Evansville
vs. SIU
@ UNI

Good chance to get the two home losses back, and we already won in Carbondale.

4-7 to 6-5 would be an improvement.
"[. . .] and it would be foolish to gobble up sliders when there’s a steak hidden in the fridge." -Kirk Wessler

braves1996
Silver Poster (250 posts)
Silver Poster (250 posts)
Posts: 356
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:40 am

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by braves1996 » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:38 pm

BradleyBrave wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:30 pm
BradleyBrave wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:36 pm
The odds of this are slim and none, but we could win every game up until home against Loyola on February 13.

ISU
@ MSU
@ Evansville
SIU
@ UNI
Indiana St

Loyola is the only good team in our league. I’m already chalking that one up to a sweep. Every other team we can beat, and we will have the chance to save our season over the next 6 games. 8 is the magic number...for both guaranteeing .500 and likely staying out of Thursday...

Oh get me to Feb 2 at home going for .500 against Barry...
1 down.

We have 11 games left. Is 6-5 that unrealistic? 7-4 even?
6-5 is not unrealistic, and since we were supposed to be a solid team, I think it’s fair to expect it.

If we get to 8-10 and are playing some of our better ball heading to STL I won’t call this season a big failure.

8-10 and 6th place vs 10-8 and 4th doesn’t sway me one way or the other.

Don’t play-in and win Friday in STL to set the stage to give yourself a chance. That’s all we can ask for after the 0-5 hiccup.

User avatar
squirrel
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 30358
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2003 8:45 pm
Location: Peoria, IL

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by squirrel » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:48 pm

70% of the league is either 4-3 or 3-4. And only 2 of those 7 teams are 4-3.

2 teams are 5-2.

Bradley is 2-5. With a bullet. Get it fellas.
"[. . .] and it would be foolish to gobble up sliders when there’s a steak hidden in the fridge." -Kirk Wessler

User avatar
BradleyBrave
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 15102
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2003 2:51 pm
Location: Emergency Room
Contact:

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by BradleyBrave » Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:42 pm

The Valley tiebreaker system seems to be perpetually changing ever since they went away from the near-perfect point system. What is it nowadays after head to head and round robin? NET?
“Bradley is a dream job for me. Why Bradley? It’s very simple. I knew all about Bradley growing up. I played at Carver Arena a couple of times. We didn’t win those games, but I plan on winning a lot there in the future.” - Brian Wardle, March 27, 2015

ER3
Grand Master
Grand Master
Posts: 2035
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 1:24 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by ER3 » Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:56 pm

BradleyBrave wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:42 pm
The Valley tiebreaker system seems to be perpetually changing ever since they went away from the near-perfect point system. What is it nowadays after head to head and round robin? NET?
Yeah...

1) Head to head
2) Round robin (in 3-way or greater ties)
3) NET

User avatar
SaintLouBrave22
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 18577
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2003 8:37 am
Location: St. Louis, MO

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by SaintLouBrave22 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:47 pm

BradleyBrave wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:42 pm
The Valley tiebreaker system seems to be perpetually changing ever since they went away from the near-perfect point system. What is it nowadays after head to head and round robin? NET?
Does it really surprise anyone that Elgin & Co. decided to *** up a perfectly good system because he thought it would have some semblance of a bearing on SoS.
---If you need it, you don't have it. If you have it you don't need it. But if you need and you don't have it, you want it. If you don't have any of it, then you really don't know how to get more to get started then do you?---

User avatar
BradleyBrave
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 15102
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2003 2:51 pm
Location: Emergency Room
Contact:

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by BradleyBrave » Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:29 pm

Better win the next 2 or we’re probably last. 7th looks like the ceiling now, with MSU holding the tiebreaker.

#TheArrival right back where we started.
“Bradley is a dream job for me. Why Bradley? It’s very simple. I knew all about Bradley growing up. I played at Carver Arena a couple of times. We didn’t win those games, but I plan on winning a lot there in the future.” - Brian Wardle, March 27, 2015

User avatar
SaintLouBrave22
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 18577
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2003 8:37 am
Location: St. Louis, MO

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by SaintLouBrave22 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:37 pm

BradleyBrave wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:29 pm
Better win the next 2 or we’re probably last. 7th looks like the ceiling now, with MSU holding the tiebreaker.

#TheArrival right back where we started.
8 of the last 9 years in the play-in, which is now basically the Bradley Toilet Bowl Party.
---If you need it, you don't have it. If you have it you don't need it. But if you need and you don't have it, you want it. If you don't have any of it, then you really don't know how to get more to get started then do you?---

BUFanatic
Gold Poster (500 posts)
Gold Poster (500 posts)
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:34 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by BUFanatic » Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:44 pm

ER3 wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:56 pm
BradleyBrave wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:42 pm
The Valley tiebreaker system seems to be perpetually changing ever since they went away from the near-perfect point system. What is it nowadays after head to head and round robin? NET?
Yeah...

1) Head to head
2) Round robin (in 3-way or greater ties)
3) NET
NET makes about as much sense as leaving it up to score differential. I’d prefer
H2H
Overall Record
SOS
Walk on, walk on, with hope in your hearts and you'll never walk alone, you'll never walk alone! One day soon we'll be back.

braves1996
Silver Poster (250 posts)
Silver Poster (250 posts)
Posts: 356
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:40 am

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by braves1996 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:49 pm

BUFanatic wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:44 pm
ER3 wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:56 pm
BradleyBrave wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:42 pm
The Valley tiebreaker system seems to be perpetually changing ever since they went away from the near-perfect point system. What is it nowadays after head to head and round robin? NET?
Yeah...

1) Head to head
2) Round robin (in 3-way or greater ties)
3) NET
NET makes about as much sense as leaving it up to score differential. I’d prefer
H2H
Overall Record
SOS
Overall record would potentially result in poor non con scheduling.

BUFanatic
Gold Poster (500 posts)
Gold Poster (500 posts)
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:34 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by BUFanatic » Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:50 pm

braves1996 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:49 pm
BUFanatic wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:44 pm
ER3 wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:56 pm

Yeah...

1) Head to head
2) Round robin (in 3-way or greater ties)
3) NET
NET makes about as much sense as leaving it up to score differential. I’d prefer
H2H
Overall Record
SOS
Overall record would potentially result in poor non con scheduling.
Depends on the program’s goals. I recall a day where I would have killed to see us play a P5 opponent with a chance for an at large bid. I know the conference isn’t what it was 10 years ago so the thinking has changed. In a competative Valley, you don’t schedule cupcakes to build Overall Record stats if you want insurance that even if you fall in the Tourney you have a shot at an at large bid. Optimistic I know.

That being said, with the current state of the Valley I might swap 2 and 3 but it just seems non-linear to me.
Walk on, walk on, with hope in your hearts and you'll never walk alone, you'll never walk alone! One day soon we'll be back.

User avatar
TheAsianSensation
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 8393
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2003 12:43 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by TheAsianSensation » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:35 pm

It's going to be nearly impossible to avoid Thursday at this point.

(warning: math ahead)

Yes, we may only be 2 games out of 6th right now, but remember this super-obvious fact: everyone in the league plays each other. That means all these teams ahead of us play each other, and someone has to win these game. So we have to win just to keep pace with the winner of those games.

I think, based on how the conference is going this year, it's now more likely a 9-9 team plays Thursday than not. With everyone so close together, we'll likely see a multi-team tie for 4th or 5th place, right at 9-9. It'll take .500 to avoid Thursday.

We have the worst tiebreaker in the league, mostly thanks to terrible offensive efficiency marks and a terrible non-con SoS. Which means 9-9 won't be enough for us, we'll need 10-8.

We're already at 6 losses, and have Loyola twice and @isu coming. We need to bink one of those three games AND win all the others to avoid Thursday now.

Season is shot.
That's enough, Reggie Miller.

That's enough, Chris Webber.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

User avatar
shaunguth
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 4557
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 5:03 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by shaunguth » Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:38 pm

BUFanatic wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:50 pm
braves1996 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:49 pm
BUFanatic wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:44 pm


NET makes about as much sense as leaving it up to score differential. I’d prefer
H2H
Overall Record
SOS
Overall record would potentially result in poor non con scheduling.
Depends on the program’s goals. I recall a day where I would have killed to see us play a P5 opponent with a chance for an at large bid. I know the conference isn’t what it was 10 years ago so the thinking has changed. In a competative Valley, you don’t schedule cupcakes to build Overall Record stats if you want insurance that even if you fall in the Tourney you have a shot at an at large bid. Optimistic I know.

That being said, with the current state of the Valley I might swap 2 and 3 but it just seems non-linear to me.
The fact that you think there's a shot of this conference getting multiple bids shows your extreme optimism.
"There's more to the game than shooting. There's fundamentals and defense."

BUFanatic
Gold Poster (500 posts)
Gold Poster (500 posts)
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:34 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by BUFanatic » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:01 pm

shaunguth wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:38 pm
BUFanatic wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:50 pm
braves1996 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:49 pm


Overall record would potentially result in poor non con scheduling.
Depends on the program’s goals. I recall a day where I would have killed to see us play a P5 opponent with a chance for an at large bid. I know the conference isn’t what it was 10 years ago so the thinking has changed. In a competative Valley, you don’t schedule cupcakes to build Overall Record stats if you want insurance that even if you fall in the Tourney you have a shot at an at large bid. Optimistic I know.

That being said, with the current state of the Valley I might swap 2 and 3 but it just seems non-linear to me.
The fact that you think there's a shot of this conference getting multiple bids shows your extreme optimism.
In the future I’d love to see it again. It’s just what I’ve been conditioned to expect from the non-con. I’d love to see it return to that, but in the meantime if I’m a competitive minded Valley coach I’m keeping my scheduling strategy to include as many tough quality D-1 opponents as possible, not padding my overall record for a potential failed trip to STL. Doing anything else means you’ve settled in to your status as a low major due to recent lack of success and two major programs leaving for greener pastures.

So yeah, I guess it’s optimistic, I’d call it doing your best to keep your players on their toes and push them to play better so that the recruits coming in will be better than they were. But who knows, I still take a lot of pride in the MVC and the history of the programs involved. If I had the honor to play for BU when we were playing terrible ball I would have wanted to do everything I could to make it more attractive for players much more talented than I (would have been pretty easy hahaha) to take the program to a much higher level.
Walk on, walk on, with hope in your hearts and you'll never walk alone, you'll never walk alone! One day soon we'll be back.

User avatar
BradleyBrave
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 15102
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2003 2:51 pm
Location: Emergency Room
Contact:

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by BradleyBrave » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:10 pm

I feel like Valpo, Trees, and Aces are really close to tanking. UNI and SIU are going to be kicking and screaming to stay out of Thursday. MSU will be borderline but they own us, and the clock might be midnight for the feel-good Bulldogs.

Only ISU and Loyola are safe in my eyes...and we dropped 80+ on a very average Birds team.

Home sweep and 1 more roadie. 9-9. Could be tied for 3rd, could be playing in.
“Bradley is a dream job for me. Why Bradley? It’s very simple. I knew all about Bradley growing up. I played at Carver Arena a couple of times. We didn’t win those games, but I plan on winning a lot there in the future.” - Brian Wardle, March 27, 2015

User avatar
TheAsianSensation
All Universe
All Universe
Posts: 8393
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2003 12:43 pm

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by TheAsianSensation » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:32 pm

BradleyBrave wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:10 pm
I feel like Valpo, Trees, and Aces are really close to tanking. UNI and SIU are going to be kicking and screaming to stay out of Thursday. MSU will be borderline but they own us, and the clock might be midnight for the feel-good Bulldogs.

Only ISU and Loyola are safe in my eyes...and we dropped 80+ on a very average Birds team.

Home sweep and 1 more roadie. 9-9. Could be tied for 3rd, could be playing in.
Could be both. :shock:
That's enough, Reggie Miller.

That's enough, Chris Webber.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

User avatar
Dallas Brave
DieHard (50 posts)
DieHard (50 posts)
Posts: 73
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:21 am

Re: Preseason previews, projections, predictions, etc.

Post by Dallas Brave » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:06 am

One thing that is predictable is that the Braves are unpredictable. 9 conference games left … their W/L standard deviation at this point of conference play is probably 1 1/2 games against the midpoint. They could expectably win anywhere from 3 to 6 games. I've enjoyed the games a lot more since I dialed back my expectations following the first few games of conference play. At this point, it's all good. Next season is a different story provided we bring in a couple of jucos and/or grad transfers, but I'll fret about next year after this season is over.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BeBrave, Bluejaygrad03, BradleyBrave, bufan39 and 20 guests