2026 World Cup

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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Mon May 21, 2018 12:44 pm

The vote is just weeks away, and the bid vote is expected to be close:
http://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-world-c ... se-to-call
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Wed May 30, 2018 10:16 am

Shock prediction:

A new report investigating the bidding process for 2022 is set to be released in the coming days, this, while there is growing consensus to move the expansion to 48 teams for the 2022 tournament.

Meanwhile, the united Mexico/US/Canada bid is not a sure thing in the balloting against Morocco.

So, my prediction is Morocco wins the 2026 bid, but FIFA also opts to ramp expansion for 2022 up, deems Qatar unable to host, and grants emergency host status to the US, who extends the united bid to the 2022 award, or FIFA outright awards the united bid 2022 hosting rights.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by TheAsianSensation » Wed May 30, 2018 7:40 pm

I refuse to believe Morocco is an actual thing that's going to happen.

I predict FIFA gives Australia emergency 2022 rights (I'd argue they got more bleeped by FIFA than the US in the last voting; they had to share a confederation with Qatar so it was masked).
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Thu May 31, 2018 7:49 am

Fair point on Ozyland...and the logistics work out for them since it is already scheduled for the winter months. A major problem with their bid was they wouldn't be able to have full access to many of its largest stadiums because the AFL and its teams were not willing to relinquish them fully. And, it would be winter in the US, although it would be really fun to have our first Snowgolazo!

I don't know they'd be able to host a 48-team event, but they could also joint host with New Zealand, giving OFC a hosting opportunity as well, and a cross-confederation opportunity.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:20 am

FIFA has lifted Guatemala's ban, which (hopefully) gives CONCACAF another vote.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:11 pm

Late-breaking word that FIFA may release their technical reports regarding both bids, and that Morocco may not have received a passing score, but may still be allowed on the June 13 ballot.


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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:21 am

The United bid scored 402 out of 500 possible points, while Morocco only scored a 275, with the review committee stating it “considers it its duty to emphasise the significant overall risk” and “The amount of new infrastructure required for the Morocco 2026 bid to become reality cannot be overstated."

The US-Mexico-Canada bid received perfect scores for ticketing and hospitality, while receiving its lowest score of a 2 for organizational costs (primarily related to using 16 stadiums, fan sites and related general overhead). However, the United bid expects to virtually double the projected potential revenue of the Morocco bid by a margin of $14.3B to $7.2B.

It was also noted that Morocco did not address or disclose LGBT inclusivity or human rights in its bid, while the country has an anti-LGBT law in effect.

Despite the poor rating of the Morocco bid, both bids will be on the June 13 ballot.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ca-morocco

The full evaluation report may be found here:
http://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/news/y=2 ... uncil.html
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by Bluejaygrad03 » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:37 pm

One thing to note is that while the results do favor the chances of the North American bid, the FIFA member nations do not have to take the results into account when they vote for who should get the 2026 World Cup.

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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Sun Jun 03, 2018 12:09 am

Bluejaygrad03 wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:37 pm
One thing to note is that while the results do favor the chances of the North American bid, the FIFA member nations do not have to take the results into account when they vote for who should get the 2026 World Cup.
Right. I still expect Morocco to win. But FIFA is only putting them on the ballot for transparency.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:27 pm

Representatives from the United bid are meeting with the South African Football Association (SAFA), as well as members of COSAFA, a 14-member organization of nations from the southern part of the African continent, including the Seychelles, Namibia, Angola, Zambia, Magagascar, and Mauritius, among others, in hopes of getting at least some votes from the competing continent.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:19 pm

squirrel wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:27 pm
Representatives from the United bid are meeting with the South African Football Association (SAFA), as well as members of COSAFA, a 14-member organization of nations from the southern part of the African continent, including the Seychelles, Namibia, Angola, Zambia, Magagascar, and Mauritius, among others, in hopes of getting at least some votes from the competing continent.
A report that SAFA at the very least is prepared to vote for the United bid, although they are publicly not going to make a statement regarding their vote, but still plan to make their intentions public at some point, likely after being able to formally notify CAF.

And as far as COSAFA is concerned, Namibia also seems to moving toward favoring the United bid. A block of African nations not voting for Morocco would likely be huge.

https://www.timeslive.co.za/sport/socce ... -cup-race/
https://www.namibian.com.na/67914/read/ ... Trump-call
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:30 am

It really is going to come down to Asia and Europe-if the Asian continent largely goes for Morocco, that would put the United bid potentially at a 30-40 vote deficit with Europe's 55 being almost required for a win.

That said, Saudi Arabia has come forth and said they are supporting the United bid. The Middle East is where the United bid would be the most vulnerable, given the global reactions and impact on Trump's foreign policies. But Saudi Arabia may bring a block of several nations, such as UAE and Bahrain with them. Egypt may also support the United bid, which would be a tough blow to a bid effort for North Africa.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:53 pm

Ghana's government may disband their soccer federation amid corruption charges, which could force FIFA to ban them before the 2026 vote:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ghana-risks- ... 33518.html

FIFA bylaws do not allow active participation from nations where the government intervenes in their national football federation. This is why Argentina fell into their administration, as well as bans for countries like Guatemala.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:58 am

Here is a table listing all countries and their probable vote, if they've publicly indicated such.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... -host.html
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by tombs14 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:20 pm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/soc ... 696a78cd51
Cordeiro praised President Trump for backing the bid and for promising the support of the federal government.

While Trump’s past comments about various countries could damage the bid’s efforts, “no one has said to us they aren’t voting for us because of who we have in the White House,” Cordeiro said. “Nobody.”
That's good to hear, but the public vote will tell all.

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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:47 pm

To be fair though, while the media attention is focused on Trump, nations intending to vote against Morocco are properly citing their poor human rights and LGBT record, along with their assertion of the Western Sahara territory, which the UN recognizes as the last disputed non-self-governing territory in Africa. This may compel some additional African neighbors to vote against the bid as well.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by Bluejaygrad03 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:44 pm

Both beIN Sports and Fox Sports will air the results of 2026 World Cup voting. beIN Sports' coverage starts at 5 AM CT with Fox Sports' coverage starting at 5:30 AM CT.

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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:12 pm

I'm giving up on guessing how this thing is going to go. I went from 100% we're going to lose it, to the last week having confidence reason was taking over.

But today has brought even more crazy news...

The US territories (USVI, American Samoa, Guam, and Puerto Rico) are going to abstain, Germany will support the United bid, while the Netherlands will support Morocco. France will also support Morocco, but expects Europe to be about an even split in terms of votes. Belgium, Russia, Serbia, and Luxembourg will vote Morocco.

South Africa has waffled-leading a block to vote for United, but then coming forth in support of Morocco, and then retracting. They have said they would announce who they would be voting for, and as of yet have to either re-affirm support of Morocco or the United bid.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by TheAsianSensation » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:38 pm

Let's go live to squirrel for further updates:

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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:26 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:38 pm
Let's go live to squirrel for further updates:

Image
FIFA math is hard.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:55 am

The United bid wins!!!!!

United 134
Morocco 65
None 1

203 eligible voters, so there may have been a couple non-votes.
"[. . .] and it would be foolish to gobble up sliders when there’s a steak hidden in the fridge." -Kirk Wessler

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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:42 am

Vote by country:
https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload ... 8zk50mnor3

Non-votes coming from Cuba, Slovenia and Spain, while Iran was the vote for NONE of the bids. Russia voted for United, while North Korea voted Morocco.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by TheAsianSensation » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:07 am

The Hex in CONCACAF for this WC is going to be fun.
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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by tombs14 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:26 am

squirrel wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:42 am
Vote by country:
https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload ... 8zk50mnor3

Non-votes coming from Cuba, Slovenia and Spain, while Iran was the vote for NONE of the bids. Russia voted for United, while North Korea voted Morocco.
That's the last time I read an ESPN article. They had Lebanon (same horizontal, wrong vertical) as the country who voted NONE - where as you correctly identified it being Iran.

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Re: 2026 World Cup

Post by squirrel » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:22 am

TheAsianSensation wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:07 am
The Hex in CONCACAF for this WC is going to be fun.
Still to be officially decided all 3 will be automatically added, but don't foresee too many problems. Infantino has stated it would ultimately be up to CONCACAF how they want to divvy up their 6 guaranteed spots. If FIFA steps in and nixes it, would be a deterrent for joint host efforts in the future, which would greatly minimize the ability for smaller nations to host.

So, if you give all 3 spots, you'd have the Hex to determine the remaining 3 guaranteed spots, plus 2 playoff candidates, with the potential for 5 of the 6 to still reach the World Cup. (The playoff will have the best-finishing non-qualifying teams from Asia, Africa, Oceania, South America, and 2 from N. America-the guaranteed spot + bonus playoff entry to host region.) Byes will be given to the highest FIFA-ranked teams, so it stands to reason CONCACAF would want as many powers out of the picture as possible, so that all the other teams can boost their rankings. So there is the potential for there to be as many as 8 CONCACAF teams in the 2026 World Cup, if unlikely.

The 2026 bid does not come with a guarantee of hosting the 2025 Confederations Cup, which could be eliminated after 2021.
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